Took the night off last night, I didn’t like much. Back at it Saturday with a huge card, let’s go!
Southern Utah -3.5
Arkansas/Texas A&M o137
UCONN +400 to win the Big East Tournament
Taking this for the same reason I took the WVU over the other night, even without Cade Cunningham. Overs are now 17-7 in WVU games (the line closed at 142.5 and we got it at 143 the other night) and WVU & TCU combined for 93 points in the second half on Thursday. I trust WVU’s pace to get us over this number even without Oklahoma State’s star.
A tale of two teams heading in opposite directions. Purdue has won and covered in 4 straight while Indiana has lost and failed to cover in 4 straight. On top of that, Purdue beat the Hoosiers by 12 in Bloomington back in January. Take Purdue to make Archie Miller’s seat even hotter.
This game is interesting. Marshall plays at the 20th highest pace in the country, Charlotte plays at the 4th lowest. However, this game went over the total last night and I think the same happens here. The way the C-USA schedule has been set up this year, they play all back to backs. In Marshall’s last 4 back to backs, the over has hit in the second game all 4 times. On top of that, the over is 7-1 in Marshall’s last 8 games overall.
Two things here: it’s senior day for the Friars and it’s Villanova’s first game without point guard Collin Gillespie. Replacing 14 PPG and the facilitator of their offense won’t be easy for the Wildcats. Nova made light work of Providence earlier this year, but I think Ed Cooley has the kids ready to play.
Southern Utah -3.5
Southern Utah is the class of the Big Sky. They also cover. 11-5 ATS this season, 5-2 on the road, including a 10 point victory against Portland State 2 nights ago. SUU has to win today to lock up the 1 seed for the Big Sky tourney too. Look for them to come out motivated. It is Senior Day for Portland State, but Southern Utah will be motivated too.
I don’t love USC on the road this season, especially after dropping 2 in a row to Utah and Colorado on the road. However, they don’t even have to leave LA today, facing cross town rival UCLA. A month ago, the Trojans beat the Bruins by almost 20 and I would expect another win tonight, although it may not be by that margin. Mick Cronin is a great coach, but containing Evan Mobley is a tall task. Take the Trojans to win, cover and sweep the season series.
Arkansas/Texas A&M o137
This is another battle of paces and styles and if you haven’t noticed, I tend to side with the better team to dictate pace in these games. That’s Arkansas. Look for them to run and put up points and leave A&M in the dust. In Arkansas’ last 11 games, they’ve scored less than 74 points once. I think they get to 80ish today and A&M scores enough to get us over the total. Again, another big spread here and I just don’t want to lay 15 points, so we’ll go over.
Butler isn’t great this year, but they’re coming off of back to back wins against Villanova and Seton Hall. They also only lost by 4 to Creighton earlier this year, and now, the Blue Jays will be without Greg McDermott due to his untimely comments the other night. Creighton might try to come out motivated to play for McDermott (apparently, they saved his job), but I don’t see them covering the 12.5.
Not much has changed on this angle since Thursday other than the fact that another Philly-Pitt game went over 6 goals. Let’s play it again.
St Louis is the better team here and you’re getting them at a reasonable price. The Kings are 3-2 against them this season and this is a back to back after the Blues came back and won last night, but I still like St Louis. They’re 10-2 on the road, the Kings are 3-7 at home and if Cal Peterson starts in net, the Kings are 3-6 with him between the pipes.
The Oilers are coming off of a 3 game series with the Maple Leafs in which they only scored 1 goal. But no one has been able to do much against Toronto this season and prior to that, the Oilers were rolling, winning 8 of 9. During that stretch, they also took 2 from the Flames, including a 7-1 victory. I haven’t loved betting on Canadian hockey this season, seems pretty unpredictable, but I like McDavid and company to bounce back.
UCONN to win the Big East Tourney +400
It’s no secret that I love James Bouknight and UConn. RJ Cole is a great player and Sanogo is a good post presence. Dan Hurley is a great coach and things are starting to click for the Huskies in a time where things are not clicking for Villanova and Creighton, the only other 2 teams that I would look at to win this conference. As I mentioned before, Nova just lost Gillespie for the season and we don’t know how long Greg McDermott won’t be manning the sidelines. March is all about getting hot at the right time and I’ll take UConn to stay hot and punch their ticket to the Big Dance.
Image via UConn Athletics