2 pushes last night was kind of wild, one worked in our favor, the other not so much. Either way, an undefeated day and the last three days have been money, let’s keep the train rolling! I’m going to release a couple of futures I’ve been sitting on as well to hopefully cash some tickets down the line.
GC’s Gambling Corner 2/23/21
Saint Louis -3.5
Buffalo/New Jersey u5.5
Nashville/Red Wings u5.5
Illinois to win NCAAB Championship +1800
San Diego Padres to win the World Series +1000
Magic -3.5 vs Pistons
We played this game the other day when the line was -2, but not much has changed here. Magic are at home against a Pistons team that is in all out tank mode. On top of that, Magic have been 4-1 in their last 5 straight up since the return of Evan Fournier and Michael Carter-Williams. Lay the points.
Nets -6.5 vs Kings
The Nets are rolling and the Kings are not. The Kings are 0-7 over their last 7 SU and ATS. The Nets are 6-0 in their last 6 SU and ATS. Both teams love to play fast and play little defense and the Nets have the better scorers in Harden and Kyrie. Take the Nets as these teams are heading in opposite directions.
Both teams have been great for overs this year and I suspect nothing to change here. Jokic will get his down low as Kanter couldn’t guard a light post. Dame, Trent, Melo, Murray and Porter Jr will light it up from the outside and on the wings. On top of pure scoring ability, the over is 4-1 on back to backs for the Blazers. Tired legs = no defense, just buckets. Tune in to TNT tonight for what should be a wildly entertaining, shootout in the Mile High City.
Saint Louis -3.5 vs VCU
Saint Louis just got absolutely stomped by Dayton so I like this as a bounce back spot for them. Their best player Yuri Collins should be at full strength tonight and VCU will be missing their best player Bones Hyland. At the college level, it’s not easy to replace 19.2 PPG. This might get into blowout territory without him.
Illinois -7 vs Mich St
Illinois has been the 4th best team in the country all year long with my favorite duo in college basketball running the team, Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn. Michigan State has been bad this year and a huge disappointment. I will say, sometimes I get concerned that Illinois gets comfortable when they have a big 2H lead, but I think they keep this distance at double digits and cover comfortably.
Buffalo/New Jersey u5.5
These plays are extremely similar in thinking. I wrote a couple of weeks ago for the Preds/Wings that I liked the under at this number and we lost that with 42 seconds to go. Not much has changed. BUF, NSH, and DET are 28, 29 and 30 in goals scored per game. NSH, DET, and NJ are all below 15.8% on the power play and Buffalo is missing a good number of players to injury/COVID. Both games will be snoozefests. Grab the unders.
This is interesting because in the preseason, this was the same number that it is now. As I stated above, I love Illinois. They’re the 4th best team in the country behind Gonzaga, Baylor and Michigan. While these 3 teams are great, they dont offer a ton of value in the futures world at the moment. I usually hate that word, “value,” it’s like yeah, go ahead and throw your money away on this penny stock, but at this price eh who cares. But that’s not the case here. Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn can dominate a game at any given point. They also have some senior guard play, which I have always said has been key in March with Trent Frazier. Brad Underwood is a heck of a coach and at this value, I don’t see how you could pass it up. They have two huge tilts against Michigan and Ohio State to end the regular season and if they split those and make a run in the Big Ten Tourney, you could be looking at a 1 seed. If they make it to the Final 4, you can start hedging your bets.
I got this right after the Darvish news broke, pre Trevor Bauer to the Dodgers. Right now the odds sit at +800, but I still like the pick. It will be tough because if the Dodgers win the division, as expected, the Padres will have to fight out of the one game Wild Card. Either way, I think a team from the NL West will win the World Series, it’ll just come down to September/October. The Padres rotation stacks up just fine to the Dodgers rotation and they have less aging pieces. And at +600 better odds than the Dodgers currently, I will gladly take this price. And once the Dodgers and Padres meet in the playoffs, you can always start to hedge. I’m going with the new Face of Baseball Fernando Tatis to hoist that “piece of metal.”