This edition of the Gambling Corner will be my picks for the Super Bowl. I wrote yesterday about how I hated the game, so I’ve got to bet on it to make it interesting right?! Don’t break the bank, but if you’ve got some play money, take a look at these and let’s make some money.
GC’s Gambling Corner: Super Bowl Edition
For all of their issues leading up in the week, the Chiefs are going to be just fine. Patrick Mahomes is amazing throwing on the run and that will continue even if he gets pressure tonight. Andy Reid will have some tricks up his sleeve and will outcoach Bruce and co. Tom is the GOAT, but if not for his defense forcing a ton of turnovers this postseason, they would not be in this game. KC doesn’t turn the ball over.
Everything is telling me to take the over, so I’m taking the under. Tampa has an amazing run defense so that could stall out some KC drives. Both teams have great pass rushes and will get home a few times. Both secondaries are giong to come to play and will be up to the challenge of all of the pass catchers tonight. I’m thinking Succop and Butker miss a FG a piece. Go under. It’ll be a sweat, but go under.
Coin Toss: Tails -105
It never fails.
MVP: Tyrann Mathieu +6000
Honey Badger dgaf bout no GOAT! But seriously, if you want to take a flyer on something other than a QB, I don’t see why you wouldn’t take Mathieu. He’ll be playing lights out, the dude always has a chip on his shoulder and flies all over the field. All it takes is a timely turnover and some clutch plays and tackles. There could be some value on a pass catcher, but there’s so many that can make an impact, I think that’s a crapshoot. Fun fact: more defensive players have won SB MVP than running backs AND no running back has won the award since Terrell Davis in Super Bowl XXXII. Just in case you were thinking about one of the 5 running backs in this game.
1st TD: Travis Kelce +650
1st TD: Mike Evans +900
My thought process on this was simple. If the first TD is a pass, which is highly likely, I took both teams’ best redzone threat.
Last TD: Gronk +1300
I think Tampa will be down in the 4th quarter. And who does Tom love in the clutch? His ole buddy Gronk.
Chiefs first reception: Kelce +210
Travis Kelce receptions: o7.5 -170
The dude is an animal. I think Todd Bowles will put a bigger emphasis on Tyreek Hill this time around which should open up Kelce for tons of opportunities. I don’t know who can guard this guy. When Tampa brings pressure, he’ll be Mahomes’ safety valve.
Patrick Mahomes passing attempts: o41.5 -160
The Bucs defense is amazing against the run. The game will be put on Mahomes’ shoulders and he’ll be slinging it tonight. Last time against the Bucs, he threw the ball a season high 49 times.
Tom Brady INT: Yes -150
Tom has had some errand throws this year. Three last game. Look for an opportunistic KC secondary to capitalize (hopefully Mathieu)
Total Rushing Yards for TB: o0.5 +115
Longest Rush for TB: o0.5 -145
Death, taxes and the Tom Brady sneak. I don’t think the Bucs will win this game, so I’m not worried about the kneel down.
Longest Enforced Penalty: o15.5 yards -110
Lots of good receivers means at least one pass interference call down the field, right?
Leonard Fournette receptions: o3.5 -150
Fournette is the receiving back in Tampa. He’s eclipsed this number in all of the playoff games and I expect that to continue. Tom loves his short passes (even though Bruce makes him take long shots) and he’ll hit Lenny in the flat a few times this evening.
Chris Godwin receiving yards: u79.5 -140
AB is back and I think Tom spreads its around. I also think the Chiefs secondary is very good at limiting YAC. Evans, Brown, even Scotty Miller tend to be the deep ball targets. Again, I think this one is a sweat as Godwin will have a few 10-15 yard receptions, but I think it goes under.
Cameron Brate receptions: u2.5 +115
Cameron Brate is like the 6th option in this offense and the second tight end. He usually catches a ball or two in short yardage play action type of situations, but I don’t think he has more than 2 catches tonight.
Let’s stack some cash!
Photo via Arrowhead Addict