We’re not even to the Super Bowl yet and the rumor mill is swirling with what feels like more QB rumors than usual. By my count, 9 teams will definitely have a new QB. Over a quarter of the league. That is insane.
In this, I’ll go over every team that I think might make a change at the quarterback position with a “most likely” scenario and a “dream” scenario for who will be under center in week 1. In each scenario, I can only use a QB once, so I won’t be saying everyone’s dream scenario is to acquire Deshaun Watson for a 5th round pick. I also won’t be saying in a dream scenario, that Watson or Stafford have a sudden change of heart and decide to stay cause that’s lame. I’ve broken this out into 3 tiers, lets get going:
Will definitely have a new QB:
Was: Dwayne Haskins/Kyle Allen/Alex Smith/Taylor Heinicke
Most Likely: Zach Wilson
Dream: Zach Wilson
While the Internet is photoshopping every QB that might be on the trade market into a WFT uniform, I just don’t see it happening. Unfortunately, Alex Smith is under contract for another year and even if they cut him, they’d still have to eat $10M in dead cap. I don’t see it. I don’t think anyone trades for Alex either. Either way, quarterback was a huge issue for WFT. They had an amazing defense this year and they have young playmakers at the skill positions. They need the most important position in football to pull it all together. I think we saw flashes of what can happen with Taylor Heinicke in the playoff game, but I’m not sure that that level of play is sustainable for him. In all scenarios, I truly think Zach Wilson will fall to the 19th pick OR WFT will trade up to get him. I’ve seen some mock drafts that have him going at #2, but I think this is the classic stock rising and then falling back down to earth thing that happens to someone every year in the draft. I love Wilson, but these draft experts will probably take the “he didn’t play anybody” thing to an extreme. Either way, it’s the best option and Zach Wilson and his headband will help DC build their new brand.
Was: Sam Darnold
Most Likely: Deshaun Watson
Dream: Justin Fields
For whatever reason, Deshaun Watson has expressed the most interest in going to the Jets. Personally, I’d opt for the warm weather in Miami, but hey, do you big guy. At the end of the day, it’s going to come down to where Deshaun wants to go, because he has the no-trade clause, so Jets it is. The dream for the Jets however, would be for them to hang on to their draft capital, draft Justin Fields and for him to be the cheaper, just as efficient option as Deshaun. Quite frankly, the Jets have more issues than QB. Watson will help, but I think they would still be looking at a subpar season unless they REALLY surround the guy with some help. The Jets should hang on to their draft capital and keep building.
Was: Tua Tagolivoa
Most Likely: Matthew Stafford
Dream: Deshaun Watson
Lots of destinations have been drawn up for Stafford, but I think he’s going to Miami and here’s why. They have the most pieces and cap room to play with. Send Tua in the deal and package in the 18th pick this year or a first next year.. they might even be able to get away with a couple of second rounders due to Stafford’s age and cap hit. Draft Sewell at #3 and sign one of the big name receivers out there. Pair it with Miami’s defense and they’re a force in the AFC. The dream is Deshaun. Younger, better, and locked up for longer than Stafford. That said, you’d probably lose 3 first rounders or Tua and 2 first rounders. So you definitely won’t get Sewell. But you can still sign a big receiver and figure out left tackle. Miami is going to be goooood folks.
Was: Deshaun Watson
Most Likely: Justin Fields
Dream: Jameis Winston
Most likely scenario is that the Texans ship Watson off to the Jets as seen before which should land them the #2 pick. If they hire Bienemy, I think he takes Fields. Mobile, strong, accurate arm and you’ve got your franchise QB. In the dream scenario, Watson has been shipped to Miami and Fields is off the board. From there, I think you take Ja’Marr Chase at #3. The Texans are in cap hell, so they sign Jameis Winston on a cheap deal like he had in New Orleans. The OLine stinks, but with Jameis’ new eyes, a star receiver, and a great coach in Bienemy, he will do just fine. Get through to next year, JJ Watt’s contract will be off the books, sign/draft your longterm QB then. Maybe it’s Jameis.
Was: Matthew Stafford
Most Likely: Tua Tagoviloa
Dream: Jared Goff
As I said before, I think the Phins acquire Matthew Stafford. In that deal, they’re sending Tua to Detroit and I think Detroit holds on to their #1 pick. Philly does Philly things, picks Patrick Surtain II and Devonta Smith is still on the board. I think we see Tua and his college teammate reunite and they would be great building blocks for the Lions to build around. In the dream world, the Lions straight up swap Stafford for Goff, their cap hits are similar, Goff has a similar skill set to Drew Brees (noodle arm/loves short passes) that Dan Campbell is very familiar with. Still get Devonta Smith, but now you’ve got a vet and you don’t have to develop a young QB.
Was: Drew Brees/Taysom Hill
Most Likely: Jameis Winston/Taysom Hill
Dream: Dak Prescott
Drew Brees has retired. Sad day for Saints fans, but we knew it was coming. I think that they stay the course, keep Jameis and Taysom, let them battle it out, but the real QB wins in camp and its the Jameis/Kamara show in NOLA for the forseeable future. HOWEVER, I think they Saints should go all out and bring Dak home. Whatever the Cowboys offer, offer him more. Brees’ cap hit was $36M and that’s about what Dak wants. Pay that man and let Sean Payton open up the offense.
Was: Phillip Rivers
Most Likely: Cam Newton/Fitzpatrick
Dream: Trey Lance
The Colts will strike out on the two big trade options. I just don’t think they offer a ton of value to Detroit. They could offer them their first round pick, but is that a good trade? The Colts take on a $20M cap hit AND lose their first rounder? I don’t think so. Instead, I think Frank Reich rolls the dice with Cam Newton and sign Fitz as insurance. Big frame like Wentz, big arm, can do more than Phil Rivers. T.Y. and Pittman will be great weapons for Cam. I think New England’s offense was terrible for him. Reich can get the most out of Cam. And if Cam can’t figure it out, Fitz will be happy to play the savior role again. The Colts’ dream scenario is having Trey Lance fall to them. He’s literally Wentz 2.0. Same school, same build, but better, faster, more accurate. Reich would be in heaven.
Was: Cam Newton
Most Likely: Mac Jones
Dream: Aaron Rodgers
Bill does Bill things in April. He’ll trade back, acquire picks and draft Mac Jones after talking to his buddy Nick Saban. Draft another receiver or sign a big name to help Mac out. Keep that run heavy offense to take pressure off of the youngster. Most of the defense will be returning from Covid opt outs and Bill will put Mac in a position where he can just manage the game. For New England, the dream is to somehow trade for Aaron Rodgers and all of their issues vanish into thin air. Rodgers finally has a coach who can get it done on the big stage and they hoist the Lombardi once again.
Was: Gardner Minshew/Mike Glennon/Luke Luton
Most Likely: Trevor Lawrence
Dream: Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence will be drafted #1 overall. Urban and Trevor are going to win all the trophies. See here: https://betweentheyards.com/2021/01/17/tlaw-and-urban-are-going-to-be-brady-bill-esque/ That is all.
It’s a toss up:
Was: Mitch Trubisky/Nick Foles/Mitch Trubisky
Most Likely: Trey Lance
Dream: Mitch Trubisky
The Bears man. I don’t even know what to say about the Bears. Part of me thinks they figured out that neither guy they have is the answer. So I’m going to say that they draft Trey Lance in the first round. Trade up, maybe learn from that whole Watson/Mahomes situation and get Lance. Big guy, big arm, good for windy Chicago. In my dream scenario, they extend Mitch for cheap and he figures it out. Took a while, but he gets it together and they draft a wideout at the end of the first to replace ARob. Kind of like the Vikings last year. They laugh cause Rodgers is out of the division and the Bears are the kings in the North once again. This a dream scenario for a reason folks.
Was: Jimmy G/Nick Mullens/CJ Beathard
Most Likely: Jimmy G/Kyle Trask
Dream: Jimmy G
Everyone is talking about San Fran moving off of Jimmy G. I just don’t think they do. The media is acting like Jimmy G is terrible. He’s has had some terrible luck with injuries, yes, but Kyle Shanahan took the guy to a Super Bowl. AND they had the lead. They’re going to lose Trent Williams, Richard Sherman, and Soloman Thomas to free agency, so why add QB to the question mark list? I think they stick with their guy for one more year, spend their first round pick on a left tackle, then get Kyle Trask in the 2nd round as an insurance policy. Shanahan could have some fun with that kid. The dream is that Jimmy is just fine, Shanahan and him return to 2019 form and they’re back at the top of the NFC West.
Probably not, but we’ll see:
Was: Dak Prescott/Andy Dalton
Most Likely: Dak Prescott
Dream: Mac Jones
Once Dak got hurt, contract talks simmered allllll the way down, but they’re still looming large for Jerry Jones and company. I think at the end of the day, Jerry bucks up and pays the man. He was BALLING before the injury and will use that to his advantage. However, I think the Cowboys could easily pass on the big payday for Dak and use the 10th pick as capital to trade back and get a rookie QB who has already shown that he can succeed when surrounded by weapons, Mac Jones. The guys around him will help him succeed and Jerry can use the cap space to sign some secondary help.
Was: Jared Goff
Most Likely: Jared Goff
Dream: Matthew Stafford
I think McVay will stick with his guy. They invested in Goff for a reason, but there’s been little rumors swirling around that if they find the right trade partner, Goff could be on the move. I think that partner should be Detroit. Bring in Stafford and use that big arm to open up the offense. He’s smarter than Goff, so McVay won’t have to walk him through pre-snap reads until the mic cuts out. He’s also tough as nails and loves football. McVay and Stafford would be best friends. If this happens, look out NFC, no one’s beating the Rams (barring injury).
Was: Aaron Rodgers
Most Likely: Aaron Rodgers
Dream: Jordan Love
Aaron Rodgers was PISSED after the L yesterday. I think he’s big mad that Jordan Love is waiting in the wings and that the Pack didn’t get it done AGAIN. It’s kind of nuts that life comes full circle and 15 years later, Rodgers is now Favre and Love is now Rodgers. I truly think Rodgers stays in Green Bay buuuut if they can offload Rodgers, draft a run stopper or two and Jordan Love is the real deal, I could see it. Free up that cap space to bring back Aaron Jones and sign a wideout as another kick in the balls to ARod… not likely, but I could see it.
That’s how I see the QB carousel shaking out. Comment on this post and tell me why you think I’m right or why I’m nuts. Discussion is welcomed.